The projected economic burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to overweight in Brazil by 2030.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of overweight increases the risk of several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and, consequently, the costs of health care systems. In this study, we aimed to project the economic burden of NCDs attributable to overweight in Brazil between 2021 and 2030. METHODS: A cohort simulation of adults (17-117 years) using multistate lifetable modeling was used to estimate the costs of NCDs attributable to overweight in Brazil. The projections of direct health care costs (outpatient and inpatient expenses in the Unified Health System) and indirect costs (years of productive life lost) considered different trajectories of the prevalence of overweight between 2021 and 2030. RESULTS: In 2019, the prevalence of overweight was 55.4% in the adult Brazilian population. We estimate that around 1.8 billion international dollars (Int$) would be spent on the direct health care cost of NCDs between 2021 and 2030, through the continued increase in overweight prevalence observed between 2006 and 2020. The indirect costs over the same time would be approximately 20.1 billion Int$. We estimate that halving the annual increase in body mass index slope from the beginning of 2021 until 2030 would save 20.2 million Int$ direct and indirect costs by 2030. In the scenario of keeping the prevalence of overweight observed in 2019 constant until 2030, the savings would be 40.8 million Int$. Finally, in the scenario of a 6.7% reduction in the prevalence of overweight observed in 2019 (to be achieved gradually until 2030), 74.1 million Int$ would be saved. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the high economic burden of overweight in the Brazilian adult population.

The economic burden of overweight and obesity in Brazil: perspectives for the Brazilian Unified Health System.

OBJECTIVES: Parallel to rising obesity prevalence in Brazil, there is expected to be increased direct health care costs related to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). In this study, we estimated the economic burden of NCDs attributable to overweight and obesity in the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS). METHODS: We used self-reported body mass index of 85,715 adults from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey. Annual costs (1 US$ = 2.281 Reais) with inpatient and outpatient procedures were obtained from the Hospital and Ambulatory Information Systems of the Brazilian SUS. Relative risks for cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, neoplasm, digestive disease, musculoskeletal disorders, diabetes and kidney diseases, sense organ diseases, and neurological disorders were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease study. RESULTS: Annually, US$ 654 million (95% uncertainty interval: US$ 418.4 to US$ 893.2) direct health care costs related to NCDs were attributable to overweight and obesity. Attributable costs were higher in women than men. Cardiovascular diseases had the highest attributable costs (US$ 289 million), followed by chronic respiratory diseases (US$ 110 million), neoplasms (US$ 96 million), digestive diseases (US$ 60 million), musculoskeletal disorders (US$ 44 million), diabetes and kidney disease (US$ 31 million), sense organ diseases (US$ 22 million) and neurological disorders (US$ 11 million). CONCLUSIONS: Overweight and obesity account for US$ 654 million direct costs of NCDs annually. Effective policies to promote healthy body weight may have economic benefits.